The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Kenya’s largest opposition party led by Raila Odinga, is in disarray following revelations of a clandestine political deal between Odinga and President William Ruto. This alliance has not only blindsided party loyalists but also exposed sharp divisions among ODM leaders, threatening to erode the party’s unity and legacy as a leading voice of opposition in Kenyan politics.
The deal, which reportedly facilitated the inclusion of several ODM members into President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza government, has raised questions about the party’s ideological direction and its commitment to holding the government accountable. For many ODM supporters, this move signals betrayal by a party that has historically positioned itself as the defender of the common mwananchi (citizen) and a staunch critic of Ruto’s administration.
Cracks in the ODM Leadership
At the heart of ODM’s turmoil are conflicting narratives from the party’s senior leaders. While Raila Odinga has maintained a calculated silence about the specifics of the deal, several key figures have openly supported the alliance, portraying it as a pragmatic step to foster national unity and address the needs of Kenyans.
Suna East MP Junet Mohamed, a close ally of Odinga, has defended the engagement with Ruto, arguing that ODM cannot operate in perpetual antagonism with the government. “We must be part of the solution, not the problem,” Junet declared during a press briefing, emphasizing that ODM’s involvement would ensure that their constituents’ needs are prioritized.
However, this position is sharply contested by a faction within the party led by Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Narok Senator Ledama Olekina. These dissenters accuse the party leadership of abandoning ODM’s core values in exchange for political patronage. “We were elected to fight for the people, not to dine with the very individuals we accused of rigging the elections,” said Babu Owino, calling the deal an act of betrayal.
The divisions have been further amplified by whispers of discontent from ODM governors who were reportedly sidelined in the negotiations. Insiders claim that some county leaders feel undermined, particularly as their political fates in 2027 could now hinge on decisions made by a few party elites.
The Grassroots Rebellion
Beyond the corridors of power, ODM’s grassroots support base is equally shaken. Raila Odinga, fondly known as Baba to his supporters, has enjoyed unwavering loyalty from millions of Kenyans over the years. Yet, this loyalty is now being tested as ordinary citizens question the rationale behind the deal.
“We stood by Raila through thick and thin. If he aligns with Ruto, what’s left of the opposition?” lamented Agnes Achieng, a vendor in Kisumu, a traditional ODM stronghold. Similar sentiments were echoed in Mombasa and Homa Bay, where rallies meant to justify the deal turned into platforms for angry outbursts against perceived betrayal.
For decades, ODM has been a symbol of resistance against what it terms “bad governance” and “electoral injustice.” The grassroots rebellion underscores fears that aligning with Ruto’s government could strip the party of its identity and credibility.
A Calculated Gamble or Political Suicide?
Political analysts have described the ODM-Ruto pact as a double-edged sword. On one hand, it could provide the party with leverage to influence government decisions and secure development projects for its supporters. On the other, it risks alienating its base and fueling the perception that ODM has been co-opted into the very system it once opposed.
Professor Herman Manyora, a political commentator, argues that Odinga might be employing a long-term strategy. “Raila is a seasoned politician. This deal might be his way of staying relevant and positioning himself for 2027,” Manyora said. However, he warned that the move could backfire if ODM fails to manage internal dissent.
Implications for the 2027 Elections
With the next general election just three years away, ODM’s internal divisions could have far-reaching implications. Raila Odinga, who has contested five presidential elections without success, has hinted at retirement but remains an influential figure in Kenyan politics. His alignment with Ruto could either bolster his legacy as a unifying statesman or tarnish it as a betrayal of his supporters’ trust.
The alliance also provides an opportunity for Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua to exploit ODM’s weaknesses and consolidate his influence in Mount Kenya. Already, Gachagua has made overtures to disgruntled ODM members, urging them to abandon the “sinking ship” and join his camp.
Meanwhile, rival opposition leader Kalonzo Musyoka, leader of the Wiper Party, has seized the moment to position himself as the true face of the opposition. Kalonzo’s recent public statements criticizing the ODM-Ruto pact suggest he is ready to court disillusioned ODM supporters and solidify his base ahead of 2027.
Raila’s Dilemma
As the cracks widen within ODM, Raila Odinga faces a daunting task: reconciling a divided party while justifying the controversial alliance to his supporters. His decision will not only determine the future of ODM but also shape his legacy as one of Kenya’s most iconic political figures.
For ODM, the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty. Can the party navigate these turbulent waters and emerge stronger, or will this be the beginning of its downfall? Only time will tell.
In the meantime, one thing is clear: ODM’s internal struggles are far from over, and the political landscape in Kenya is about to get even more unpredictable.
