In a dramatic turn of events, Martha Karua, the former 2022 presidential running mate of Raila Odinga, has taken a decisive step towards a major political shift in Kenya. Today, Karua, who is also the leader of Narc Kenya, will lead her party’s National Delegates Convention (NDC) to formally withdraw from the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition.
This move marks the beginning of what could be a massive fragmentation of the opposition alliance, as several other affiliate parties are already contemplating following suit.
For the better part of two years, Azimio la Umoja was a formidable political force, bringing together a host of opposition parties under the leadership of Raila Odinga. The coalition’s core was made up of Odinga’s ODM, Karua’s Narc Kenya, former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee, and other like-minded parties, all united in their quest for a political overhaul and challenging President William Ruto’s administration. However, as the country grapples with political tension and disagreements over key national issues, cracks have started to appear in the once-solid opposition bloc.
The Breaking Point: Karua’s Withdrawal
Martha Karua’s decision to lead Narc Kenya out of Azimio is not entirely unexpected. Over the past few months, she has been vocal about her dissatisfaction with the direction the coalition has taken under the leadership of Raila Odinga and his allies. Sources close to Karua suggest that she has grown increasingly frustrated with the lack of cohesion and the seeming inability of Azimio to effectively challenge the Ruto administration.
Karua’s exit is likely to be the first in a domino effect that could see more parties distancing themselves from Azimio, raising questions about the coalition’s future viability. The Narc Kenya leader has long been a powerful voice in Kenyan politics, and her departure is bound to have a ripple effect, especially within the Mount Kenya region, where her support base is significant. Karua’s move is not just a political strategy; it’s also a signal to the country that the opposition is facing serious internal turmoil.
ODM’s Struggles
As Karua takes her party out of Azimio, the focus shifts to the fate of Raila Odinga’s ODM party. For years, ODM has been the backbone of the Azimio coalition, with Odinga serving as its flagbearer in the 2022 elections. However, the party has faced increasing pressure in recent months. ODM’s grassroots support appears to be waning, and the party is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain unity among its members.
This fracturing of ODM support is not just a result of Karua’s exit; it’s part of a broader trend of dissatisfaction with Azimio’s leadership and its inability to mount a successful opposition. ODM members have raised concerns about the lack of a clear strategy and the failure to achieve meaningful gains from the coalition’s efforts. This disillusionment is compounded by the growing perception that Azimio is becoming more of a liability than a viable political force.
The Jubilee Dilemma
Meanwhile, Jubilee, under the leadership of former President Uhuru Kenyatta, is facing a similar dilemma. Jubilee’s place in Azimio was always somewhat awkward, given the complex political history between Kenyatta and Odinga. Though the two leaders managed to set aside their differences during the 2022 election cycle, the political reality is that their alliance has always been tenuous at best. Kenyatta’s position within the coalition was primarily symbolic, and the party’s influence within Azimio has been increasingly questioned by its members.
With Karua’s departure, the spotlight is now on Jubilee’s next move. Will the party continue to support Azimio, or will it follow Narc Kenya and carve out a new political path? Given the internal divisions within Jubilee, many observers believe that the party may soon make a similar announcement about its future in the coalition.
Mount Kenya’s Shifting Loyalties
The departure of Karua and potentially other parties is likely to have significant implications for the Mount Kenya region, where political loyalties are shifting rapidly. Karua, a prominent figure in the region, has long been seen as a representative of the region’s interests within the opposition. Her exit from Azimio will undoubtedly alter the political landscape of the region.
In recent months, there have been signs of growing discontent with Azimio’s leadership in Mount Kenya. Many local leaders have expressed frustration over the coalition’s failure to address key regional issues, particularly in the areas of economic development and political representation. As the political scene in Mount Kenya becomes more fragmented, it is likely that more leaders will begin to distance themselves from Azimio and seek new alliances that better align with their interests.
The Impending Collapse of Azimio?
While the full consequences of Karua’s withdrawal remain to be seen, the signs of Azimio’s disintegration are clear. The coalition’s ability to function as a united opposition force is now in serious question. As more parties consider following in Karua’s footsteps, it’s likely that Azimio will be forced to confront its internal divisions.
For Raila Odinga, this represents a critical moment in his political career. His role as the leader of Azimio has been under intense scrutiny, and the loss of key allies like Karua and potentially Jubilee could signal the end of an era for the veteran politician. The pressure will now be on Odinga to find a way to regroup, rebuild, and reassert his leadership.
The Future of Opposition Politics in Kenya
As the Azimio coalition unravels, the future of opposition politics in Kenya appears uncertain. With Karua’s exit, other leaders will likely reconsider their positions within the opposition, potentially leading to the formation of new political alliances. This could result in a more fragmented political landscape, where smaller opposition groups struggle to find common ground in their quest to challenge the ruling government.
The mass exodus from Azimio could also open up new opportunities for emerging political players to step into the vacuum left behind by the collapse of the coalition. As the 2027 general elections approach, Kenya’s political future looks more unpredictable than ever.
The coming weeks will be crucial for the opposition, and as Karua leads Narc Kenya out of Azimio, the question on everyone’s mind is: Will this be the beginning of the end for Azimio, or will the coalition find a way to survive the storm? Only time will tell.
